We are now hearing from Khartoum that the ruling regime will accept the referendum in January 2011 to be held at South Sudan. Many are predicting that Sudan will split in to North Arabs and South non Arabs. The Libyan dictator Mohamed Qaddafi on last week statement in Addis was also suggesting that independent South Sudan will be like Somalia. However, he did not prescribe such outcome for his North Arab friends.
Qaddafi's prediction of another Somalia in South Sudan is a possibility as long as the Beshir regime is still on power following the national election this spring. Oil reach North Sudan can arm factions in the South to make sure that South Sudan will indeed be another Somalia.
There is another destabilizing factor also for united or divided Sudan, the TPLF regime factor, giving away huge land which is about 1000km with an average width of 30km land on Ethiopia's western front to the newly two Sudan. TPLF might finalize this deal after it extends its rule over Ethiopia on the coming May election so far which looks like a coronation than election.
If we have a free media the issue of land given to Sudan would have been a number one election issue to rally Ethiopians against giving our land to Sudan. We have only less than four months, there is no debate in any platform on any issue let alone a huge issue of land for which Ethiopians will give much priority than any other issue.
Both North and South Sudan are a beneficiary of such undemocratic atmosphere in Ethiopia. For them the issue of land awarded should proceed quietly without involving the public and both of them wanted the Meles regime to stay on power to implement the deal they have made behind our back.
Moreover, the division in the diaspora oppositions following the decision of AEUP to sign the Code of Conduct and the joining of Seye Abraha, the UDJP party at a leadership position, have put the major national issue of land on back burner and valuable time is wasted.
This is a good time for both North and South Sudan to consolidate a big land/bonus given away to them for newly to be formed independent North and South Sudan, make a new map at Ethiopia's expense. However, this is not going to stand because Ethiopians both in North/Gonder and South/Gambella will fight for their land against the newly formed Sudan no matter what.
Sudan, both and North, surely will be another Eritrea that opened war against Yemen, Ethiopia and recently Djibouti to get its "lost territory". The two newly formed Sudan's war however is different in a sense the ruling regime in Ethiopia is part of the problem when it comes to Ethiopia's national interest. It stands with Sudan by giving away of our land using the defunct colonial map.
The TPLF regime which awarded Badme by bringing such defunct colonial treaties after the conclusion of the Badme war more than decade ago however failed to give Badme to Asmara after the international arbitrators gave Badme to Eritrea. The so called "Five Principles" by TPLF to normalize relation with Eritrea before it handed Badme was rejected by Asmara and we are now in a situation when any day and time another devastating war will break out in north.
When it comes to our western boundary there was no condition but total sell out of our land to Sudan. Ethiopians protested in the diaspora when the secret of the deal came out open few years ago and the regime covered up this by bringing the all known development agreement with both North and South Sudan. The people in Gonder and Gambella are revolting against the deal made behind their back and currently our people are facing both Sudan and TPLF militias.
When i write this piece I heard Lidetu Ayalew, a leader of EDP, on VOA Amharic that preparation is now final to start debates live and taped on major issues. Let me make it clear for real opponents of of TPLF, if they are not debating the illegal action of TPLF to hand over our land to Sudan as a number one national issue and call their supporters to condemn such illegal action they will be held accountable.
The signers of the Code of Conduct should not be silenced to raise this land issue. If indeed they do not debate such issue and is untouchable then this will be the Code of Surrender. TPLF will claim that there is no such land given to Sudan but Meles Zenawi himself did not deny his regime intention to reward the "generous" people of Sudan.
Those who did not sign to the Code of Conduct but are participating in the coming election can not avoid such issue either because some of them as members of TPLF parliament failed to denounce TPLF for its illegal action by avoiding the parliament to give away Ethiopian land to Sudan.
Let the debate start and bring the number one issue of our land given to Sudan for public.We know that all land that was handed to Sudan will be part of the newly formed North and South Sudan, and the beginning of new war with Ethiopian armed oppositions. South Sudanese should not start a war with their brothers and sisters as a result of the illegal land transfer made by TPLF. Such war which might be delayed because of TPLF is going to be ignited if Ethiopia has a democratic government.
North Sudan will continue to displace Ethiopians with the help of TPLF and the armed oppositions will act to defeat this illegal action. We should help all the patriots who are battling in defense of our western territory. This is our holy war to keep our holy land Ethiopian. If opponents failed to debate this issue and rally their supporters not to vote for TPLF that is selling our land to Sudan then they will lose any credibility in the eyes of Ethiopians.