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Monday, 28 March 2011

Humanitarian Bombing Mission Accomplished ?

Tedla Asfaw

President Obama has accomplished the "humanitarian bombing" that started a week ago on Libya  against "Gaddafi forces".  Gaddafi is still in power and the pickup warriors are moving unchallenged the Libyan desert from Benghazi to West and are knocking on  Gaddafi's birthplace, Surt. It will be bombed to rubles for giving  birth to Gaddafi the devil.

The famous George Bush speech from aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln under the banner of "Mission Accomplished" in May 2003 was made after George Bush toppled Saddam Hussein in six weeks spectacular air war followed by ground invasion and we know now that toppling Saddam was the easy part of the mission.

What is then is going to be Obama's tonight speech for Americans about "Mission Accomplished" ? If you heard his secretary of defense, Bob Gate, yes the mission to protect the people of Benghazi is now accomplished and no bird let alone Gaddafi's plane can fly now. The West air power had done its job and now time for the rebels to march to Tripoli.

Why not Obama wait until Gaddafi is toppled, captured or killed like George Bush did in Iraq ?. If you hear Bob Gates the answer is USA has no geopolitical interest in Libya, its interest is in Gulf area to protect the toppling of the Saudi Monarchy. In that sense the western mission is accomplished by diverting the attention from the Saudi occupation of Bahrain and the ongoing on crisis in Yemen where Bob Gates said USA has security interest.

Libya is the national interest of Europe and that is why Sarkozy was the main actor of this "humanitarian bombing" and the only leader who recognizes the Benghazi Transitional Council as a legitimate representative of the Libyan people. Wait a minute Obama has told Gaddafi to go too and how can he said mission accomplished ?

Here is Obama's credibility and some call it "USA prestige". If USA and the West stop this bombing short of toppling Gaddafi USA's prestige will be questioned and Americans will punish Obama for that if indeed Gaddafi survives until the 2012 election. We should not worry about that NATO will do the job and as Bob Gates said USA will help NATO by giving its "unique capability". Do not rule out especial commando right on Gadafi's bed room if he has any permanent bed room.

What Obama will not do as he said earlier is he will not send USA soldiers on a ground battle like George Bush did in Iraq. The commander in chief is now to declare "Mission Accomplished" tonight not from aircraft carrier from Libya Coast but from his  White House.

Obama is fighting a war for European interest and bombing civilians from air without discrimination is a crime by any measurement. Libyans are dying, children, women. Tripoli is now under siege where is the humanitarian corridor for food and medicine ? Death by Gaddafi or Death from NATO in the days ahead do not make any difference at all. The irony is that the death we see daily in Yemen perpetuated by Western supported killer, Saleh and the aborting of popular uprising in Bahrain by the Saudi soldiers is now ignored by the world media. Do not count Ivory Coast, that is not even a national interest of France that exploited it  since the colonial times. The Value of Ivorian lives is much lesser than the Libyan lives according to Sarkozy  value of  life index. Can we nominate Sarkozy for Nobel Peace/life Prize for his finding  and accomplishment ?

Indeed the Mission of derailing the popular revolt in North Africa and Middle East might be accomplished for now make no mistake the "humanitarian bombing" was never a mission of USA. Obama was a supporting actor and he will now drop that role not to jeopardize his reelection campaign in 2012. Another Noble Prize, maybe ?

Sunday, 20 March 2011

Main Actor Sarkozy, Supporting Actor Obama !!!!

Tedla Asfaw

The weekend air attack led by French fighters followed by USA Tomahawk missile and the continuing  bombardment of Libya's Gaddafi is not a humanitarian intervention on the behalf of Libyans as was billed by United Nations resolution led by President Sarkozy of France. France is the only country who recognized the Benghazi disorganized fighters as a legitimate Libyan government, this speaks volume for what this mission is all about.

This is a war for a regime change  led by Sarkozy and Obama is a supporting fellow and promised not to send USA soldiers on the ground fight. But USA will do all the logistical work without which the French soldiers will not dare to touch Tripoli. Benghazi is now under the French control.

Obama knows that Americans have no appetite for another costly war therefore he is downplaying the USA role on this war, very short and limited. The poll by the FOX news this morning is a good reminder for Obama. More than sixty percent of Americans do not support this weekend war in Libya. This poll is a good indication that USA from its costly war in Afghanistan to topple Taliban who gave sanctuary for Osama Bin Laden and the Iraq war eight years ago to topple Saddam Hussein had cost America many lives and close to trillion dollar.

Americans do not support French led war. The French who took firm stand against the war to topple Saddam Hussein eight years ago are now leading a war to topple Gaddafi their Southern neighbor thinking that this will be a short war, a weekend war maybe. That might be one of the reasons this war started on this weekend before Obama travelled to South America,hoping that Gaddafi will leave before Obama returns.

The French knows that securing Benghazi is not their final objective. They are on a mission to topple Gaddafi within few weeks or month therefore they have to put their soldiers in thousands to do that job. After the bombardment of  the air defense and the tanks and other heavy machines they will try to launch an amphibious assault on Tripoli possibly in a dark.

This Libyan military adventure is a gift from Sarkozy to boost the moral of the French people to be seriously considered as a power in the world. French audience is expected to see their young soldiers in Tripoli finishing Gaddafi off. The victory will be displayed on TV for French and non French speaking Africans that France is indeed not a small guy in the town but a force to be reckoned with. The French  inferiority complex to Americans after USA toppled Saddam Hussein by spectacular air power is still fresh in many Europeans and indeed French mind. The French and Europeans who hated George Bush led war of  the coalition of the willing that  ended  after eight years of bloody conflict have someone like Obama as a follower on their mission to fight their war in Libya.

This time the stage is reversed and we have a new actor Sarkozy of France and Obama president of USA as a supporting actor to topple Gaddafi in short order. The coalition call themselves coalition for " humanitarian mission " to save the people of Benghazi from Gaddafi forces who were close to take over the city.

The weekend war however was conducted on the coasts of Libya did not include Benghazi, the French controlled city, this is not by accident. The mission is not humanitarian at all it is a regime change and will keep on bombarding Tripoli and its surroundings for eventual ground assault. The French led forces would  like to keep their causalities low for the  eventual assault therefore they need USA to do the heavy job from air.

The battle for Tripoli will be bloody as indicated from Gaddafi. Arming the rebels and recruiting fighters in 24/7 in Benghazi is underway. Arm is getting to Benghazi through Egypt while no arm is allowed to reach  Gaddafi. Gaddafi and his supporters have already opened up the arms depot to citizens to join the war against "crusaders" .

If the French ground forces are trapped in Tripoli it is the role of the supporting actor, Obama to conduct air attack if the conflict drags on as expected. There is a possibility of Somali type Apache down which will enrage the American public. Sarkozy's  miscalculation will be known in a week or two.

For Obama putting USA in supporting role is an opportunity his opponents will exploit in the year 2012 election. A man who took power on a platform of  change is  now a " Weak Bush", not as a leader but a follower that is unacceptable for his supporters too. Americans do not like a weak president. Bush was a man who can walk the talk what we have now is  a man who is not sure of himself. I am afraid his supporting actor role to topple Gaddafi is the worst move he made on his foreign policy so far. Who knows if things getting worst and lives of American soldiers are lost no one will forgive him. Bye Bye Obama !!!!

Wednesday, 16 March 2011

Pearl Square will survive Saudi's occupation !!!

Tedla Asfaw

The Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, which came into existence in 1981 during the Iraq and Iran bloody war is a collection of eight small countries who are seating down on half of the world oil reserve. When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1991 claiming it as one of its provinces the GCC financed the liberation of Kuwait. That can be considered as one of its achievements in its 30 years beside financing the ten year war between Iraq and Iran, 1981-1991.

This time however the GCC  threatened by popular uprising in the Middle East and North Africa is lashing out and invaded one of its members, Bahrain, last Monday. Saudi sent more than one thousand of its "liberators"  to Bahrain. The popular uprising in Bahrain that call for freedom and accountability threatened all the GCC nations who are ruled  by corrupt  monarchs.

The Bahrain youth who camped at Pearl Square was under fire by Saudi soldiers last night. Bahrain is now under Saudi occupation like Kuwait in 1991 by Saddam Hussein, there is no difference at all. Saudi's are using helicopters, tanks to chase the protesters from Pearl Square and many were killed.

While the world is struggling to establish a No-Fly Zone over Libya's air space it seems the western powers have declared "No Protest Zone " in the GCC to safe guard the flow of oil. The Saudi invasion followed the recent Bob Gates Secretary of Defense of USA visit to Bahrain. Has USA given the green light for Saudi invasion ?, Sure !!!

The legitimate struggle of the people of Bahrain is now taken hostage to sectarian battle between Sunnis and Shias of the wider  Muslim world. Iran which is ruling its Shias by force is accused of supporting the Bahrain uprising by the majority Shias  calling for freedom and end of the Sunni monarchy. Iran rulers have nothing in common with popular uprising in Bahrain, the  struggle for freedom and accountability. Iranian rulers are killing and jailing protesters like the Sunni monarchs in Bahrain too.

In fact the Sunni Monarchs of the GCC and Iran Shia dictatorship have one thing in common. Both are unelected corrupt dictatorship who wanted to stay in power by using Shias VS Sunnis card beyond their border. The west who is calling for "freedom" in Iran is saying no to the people of Bahrain in fact  supporting the brutal crack down by their golden silence. No condemnation for the  loss of lives in Bahrain.

The battle for Bahrain is now the last battle of the Gulf monarchs before they are thrown out like Ben Ali of Tunisia and Mubarak of Egypt. Saudi Arabia should have been condemned like Gaddafi if there was justice in our world. Gaddafi is killing its own people to stay in power what Saudi is doing is killing other people to stay in power. When we condone  invasion for our own interest like  it shows that our world is not only suffering from natural catastrophes we are witnessing in Japan but also from man made moral  catastrophe.

The GCC should be called in its true name from its 30 years of survival. It is the" Gulf Corruption Council" that will do everything to keep the wealth of oil under the control of very few while the majority of the people do not deserve any dignity. The Saudi down payment of 37 billion to buy their people shows that these clubs of tyrants will do all, pay and kill to stay in power. They are the worst form of Gaddafi.

The people of Bahrain are paying a heavy price for standing for their rights while USA and Europeans as always looking for secure and cheap oil. The nuclear crisis in Japan will make oil the only best option for  the near future. World is now scared of nuclear  energy and those who control half of oil reserve the GCC nations have to be declared No Protest Zone.

Welcome to the GCC a club of few who are accountable to the rich nations of the world. The people of GCC will be paid or killed if they challenge the monarchs of the GCC. Three months of emergency is declared in Bahrain by Saudi occupation forces. All protests are forbidden and those who did not comply to the GCC tyrants will be dealt like they were dealt in Pearl Square last night from air and ground.

Pearl Square in Bahrain might be cleared from protesters using brute force but GCC led by Saudi Monarchy is now the number one enemy of the people of the Gulf nations and the struggle for freedom will continue. The talk of freedom by the west is truly exposed for what it is. It is about cheap oil controlled by tyrants who are killing people to keep their wealth and power.

Friday, 11 March 2011

Gaddafi must Leave who should stay ?

Tedla Asfaw

It has been one month  since Mubarak of Egypt forced to Leave following the Tahrir Popular Tsunami. Similar popular uprising has been going on in Yemen to remove the USA supported, self proclaimed,  Al Qaeda fighter Saleh who has been in power for more than three decades. Yemenis like Egyptians are pressing their demand for Saleh to go while Saleh is calling for more talks with the protesters. Similar call by Mubarak was ignored by Egyptians until he finally was kicked out one month ago.

United States Ambassador in Yemen is supporting Saleh's call for "dialogue". Street protests which was lately supported by American administration in Egypt is not good in Yemen. The reason is not only for Yemen but it also destabilizes the Saudi monarchy who is trying to buy the shias which consist of ten percent of the population with its surplus cash thanks to high oil price.

USA will not allow the Saudi monarch to be toppled by popular uprising for that it has  to fight the uprising out of Saudi's soil. Bahrain and Yemen both who have oppressed shias are danger for the Saudis. North of Yemen has been on armed revolt by shias who demand freedom and Saudi is siding with the Yemen tyrant to quash this rebellion out of fear of their own shias in the east of Saudi Arabia taking up arms.

The Saudi shias are calling today for the day of rage after the Friday prayer and if USA followed its wisdom in Yemen that is not good for the shias in Saudi Arabia, USA prefers "dialogue". Street protesters in Bahrain, Yemen and Saudi Arabia will topple the USA popped tyrants. It is better to buy time by unending dialogue sweetened by dollar like Saudi tried by down payment of 37 billion dollar. Can we call it, " No Protest Zone" like similar calls made to topple Gaddafi, "No Fly Zone".

While the media is concentrating on the "pickup revolution" of Libya the tyrants in Yemen, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are portrayed as "good tyrants" who are not killing from air like Gaddafi but can do the job from the ground. What is the difference of gunning down protesters from air or land ?

Gaddafi  was told by Obama to Leave but is not going any where in fact digging for eventual showdown with the West. If Saleh is encouraged to stay why not Gaddafi ? Obama puts itself in a very awkward position. It seems to me only Sarkozy of France who recognized the Benghazi interim administration is doing something a little bit for now. Is there a relationship between Obama's call for Gaddafi to Leave and Sarkozy's recognition of anti Gaddafi administration. Sure one is talking the other is acting. MacDonald and French fries Sarkozy's style.

The pickup revolution of Libya is a disorganized military assault which is neither dialogue which USA supports in case of Yemen nor upheaval like Egypt and Tunisia which the West was forced to accept because defending the dying regime was impossible. Large desert of Libya will not be a picnic for France if it chooses to arm the anti Gaddafi opposition. All Libyans pro and anti Gaddafi say no to foreign forces and France  can only go as "liberator" by transforming the pickup revolution into a well organized desert war supported by air.

Europe has big interest in Libya because of its proximity and its oil resource. Oil under the control of the armed opposition will be protected from air and land to reach its European customer in short time. However, divided Libya will be another Somalia and it is possible especially Egypt will be sucked into this conflict on the way short circuiting the Tahrir uprising.

The Arabs have been cheated by their corrupt rulers to focus on issues outside their borders, Middle East and Afghanistan for years. Egyptians have to empower themselves before empowering their neighbors. Egypt army as it promised has to finish the transition period and go to its barrack. It is only democratically elected government that can decide on policies related to its neighbor.

Libya's pickup revolution has already failed and it will not have any life without outside military involvement. The Arab tyrants wants this crisis to divert attention from their own and  discourage their people from not going to streets. Had the Libyans not resorted to warfare on pickup truck and blame black Africans for their problem they would have got many support like the Egyptians and Tunisians. Blame themselves for their military assault on vast desert with no logistical preparation. This is also a result of 42 years of ethnic division perpetuated by Gaddafi and lack of a well disciplined army like that of Egypt and to some extent in Tunisia.