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Sunday, 20 March 2011

Main Actor Sarkozy, Supporting Actor Obama !!!!

Tedla Asfaw

The weekend air attack led by French fighters followed by USA Tomahawk missile and the continuing  bombardment of Libya's Gaddafi is not a humanitarian intervention on the behalf of Libyans as was billed by United Nations resolution led by President Sarkozy of France. France is the only country who recognized the Benghazi disorganized fighters as a legitimate Libyan government, this speaks volume for what this mission is all about.

This is a war for a regime change  led by Sarkozy and Obama is a supporting fellow and promised not to send USA soldiers on the ground fight. But USA will do all the logistical work without which the French soldiers will not dare to touch Tripoli. Benghazi is now under the French control.

Obama knows that Americans have no appetite for another costly war therefore he is downplaying the USA role on this war, very short and limited. The poll by the FOX news this morning is a good reminder for Obama. More than sixty percent of Americans do not support this weekend war in Libya. This poll is a good indication that USA from its costly war in Afghanistan to topple Taliban who gave sanctuary for Osama Bin Laden and the Iraq war eight years ago to topple Saddam Hussein had cost America many lives and close to trillion dollar.

Americans do not support French led war. The French who took firm stand against the war to topple Saddam Hussein eight years ago are now leading a war to topple Gaddafi their Southern neighbor thinking that this will be a short war, a weekend war maybe. That might be one of the reasons this war started on this weekend before Obama travelled to South America,hoping that Gaddafi will leave before Obama returns.

The French knows that securing Benghazi is not their final objective. They are on a mission to topple Gaddafi within few weeks or month therefore they have to put their soldiers in thousands to do that job. After the bombardment of  the air defense and the tanks and other heavy machines they will try to launch an amphibious assault on Tripoli possibly in a dark.

This Libyan military adventure is a gift from Sarkozy to boost the moral of the French people to be seriously considered as a power in the world. French audience is expected to see their young soldiers in Tripoli finishing Gaddafi off. The victory will be displayed on TV for French and non French speaking Africans that France is indeed not a small guy in the town but a force to be reckoned with. The French  inferiority complex to Americans after USA toppled Saddam Hussein by spectacular air power is still fresh in many Europeans and indeed French mind. The French and Europeans who hated George Bush led war of  the coalition of the willing that  ended  after eight years of bloody conflict have someone like Obama as a follower on their mission to fight their war in Libya.

This time the stage is reversed and we have a new actor Sarkozy of France and Obama president of USA as a supporting actor to topple Gaddafi in short order. The coalition call themselves coalition for " humanitarian mission " to save the people of Benghazi from Gaddafi forces who were close to take over the city.

The weekend war however was conducted on the coasts of Libya did not include Benghazi, the French controlled city, this is not by accident. The mission is not humanitarian at all it is a regime change and will keep on bombarding Tripoli and its surroundings for eventual ground assault. The French led forces would  like to keep their causalities low for the  eventual assault therefore they need USA to do the heavy job from air.

The battle for Tripoli will be bloody as indicated from Gaddafi. Arming the rebels and recruiting fighters in 24/7 in Benghazi is underway. Arm is getting to Benghazi through Egypt while no arm is allowed to reach  Gaddafi. Gaddafi and his supporters have already opened up the arms depot to citizens to join the war against "crusaders" .

If the French ground forces are trapped in Tripoli it is the role of the supporting actor, Obama to conduct air attack if the conflict drags on as expected. There is a possibility of Somali type Apache down which will enrage the American public. Sarkozy's  miscalculation will be known in a week or two.

For Obama putting USA in supporting role is an opportunity his opponents will exploit in the year 2012 election. A man who took power on a platform of  change is  now a " Weak Bush", not as a leader but a follower that is unacceptable for his supporters too. Americans do not like a weak president. Bush was a man who can walk the talk what we have now is  a man who is not sure of himself. I am afraid his supporting actor role to topple Gaddafi is the worst move he made on his foreign policy so far. Who knows if things getting worst and lives of American soldiers are lost no one will forgive him. Bye Bye Obama !!!!