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Friday, 11 March 2011

Gaddafi must Leave who should stay ?

Tedla Asfaw

It has been one month  since Mubarak of Egypt forced to Leave following the Tahrir Popular Tsunami. Similar popular uprising has been going on in Yemen to remove the USA supported, self proclaimed,  Al Qaeda fighter Saleh who has been in power for more than three decades. Yemenis like Egyptians are pressing their demand for Saleh to go while Saleh is calling for more talks with the protesters. Similar call by Mubarak was ignored by Egyptians until he finally was kicked out one month ago.

United States Ambassador in Yemen is supporting Saleh's call for "dialogue". Street protests which was lately supported by American administration in Egypt is not good in Yemen. The reason is not only for Yemen but it also destabilizes the Saudi monarchy who is trying to buy the shias which consist of ten percent of the population with its surplus cash thanks to high oil price.

USA will not allow the Saudi monarch to be toppled by popular uprising for that it has  to fight the uprising out of Saudi's soil. Bahrain and Yemen both who have oppressed shias are danger for the Saudis. North of Yemen has been on armed revolt by shias who demand freedom and Saudi is siding with the Yemen tyrant to quash this rebellion out of fear of their own shias in the east of Saudi Arabia taking up arms.

The Saudi shias are calling today for the day of rage after the Friday prayer and if USA followed its wisdom in Yemen that is not good for the shias in Saudi Arabia, USA prefers "dialogue". Street protesters in Bahrain, Yemen and Saudi Arabia will topple the USA popped tyrants. It is better to buy time by unending dialogue sweetened by dollar like Saudi tried by down payment of 37 billion dollar. Can we call it, " No Protest Zone" like similar calls made to topple Gaddafi, "No Fly Zone".

While the media is concentrating on the "pickup revolution" of Libya the tyrants in Yemen, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are portrayed as "good tyrants" who are not killing from air like Gaddafi but can do the job from the ground. What is the difference of gunning down protesters from air or land ?

Gaddafi  was told by Obama to Leave but is not going any where in fact digging for eventual showdown with the West. If Saleh is encouraged to stay why not Gaddafi ? Obama puts itself in a very awkward position. It seems to me only Sarkozy of France who recognized the Benghazi interim administration is doing something a little bit for now. Is there a relationship between Obama's call for Gaddafi to Leave and Sarkozy's recognition of anti Gaddafi administration. Sure one is talking the other is acting. MacDonald and French fries Sarkozy's style.

The pickup revolution of Libya is a disorganized military assault which is neither dialogue which USA supports in case of Yemen nor upheaval like Egypt and Tunisia which the West was forced to accept because defending the dying regime was impossible. Large desert of Libya will not be a picnic for France if it chooses to arm the anti Gaddafi opposition. All Libyans pro and anti Gaddafi say no to foreign forces and France  can only go as "liberator" by transforming the pickup revolution into a well organized desert war supported by air.

Europe has big interest in Libya because of its proximity and its oil resource. Oil under the control of the armed opposition will be protected from air and land to reach its European customer in short time. However, divided Libya will be another Somalia and it is possible especially Egypt will be sucked into this conflict on the way short circuiting the Tahrir uprising.

The Arabs have been cheated by their corrupt rulers to focus on issues outside their borders, Middle East and Afghanistan for years. Egyptians have to empower themselves before empowering their neighbors. Egypt army as it promised has to finish the transition period and go to its barrack. It is only democratically elected government that can decide on policies related to its neighbor.

Libya's pickup revolution has already failed and it will not have any life without outside military involvement. The Arab tyrants wants this crisis to divert attention from their own and  discourage their people from not going to streets. Had the Libyans not resorted to warfare on pickup truck and blame black Africans for their problem they would have got many support like the Egyptians and Tunisians. Blame themselves for their military assault on vast desert with no logistical preparation. This is also a result of 42 years of ethnic division perpetuated by Gaddafi and lack of a well disciplined army like that of Egypt and to some extent in Tunisia.